LOS ANGELES—CoStar and Tourism Economics made minimal adjustments to growth projections in the first 2026-27 U.S. hotel forecast just released at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit today here.
For 2026, occupancy, average daily rate and revenue per available room were each upgraded 0.1 ppts from the previous forecast. Supply growth was lowered 0.2 ppts, while demand was reduced 0.1 ppts.
Isaac Collazo, vice president of analytics at STR, shared the projections on stage at ALIS with some reservations. "We still believe it's going to be a better year than 2025 but not a stellar year," he said. "Even with the World Cup, you take out the 10 top 25 cities that are hosting the World Cup event, those are really going to be the drivers of the [growth] this year."
“We expect top-line performance to strengthen in the second half of the year, although growth will remain moderate and concentrated among higher-tier hotels,” said Amanda Hite, STR president. “The early months of that period will be highlighted by notable gains in World Cup host markets and their surrounding areas. In addition, calendar shifts will provide a lift, especially as we move past the elevated comparables from the 2024 hurricane-affected markets.”
Growth rates are projected to rise further in 2027, but even the forecasted 1.4 percent increase in RevPAR would remain below the long-term average (+3 percent).
“We expect a more supportive backdrop for U.S. travel in 2026,” said Aran Ryan, director of industry studies with Tourism Economics. “While a softer job market weighs on younger and lower-wage households, real wage gains and household wealth should keep consumer spending resilient. Business investment will broaden beyond AI as borrowing costs ease and tax incentives support new projects. International travel faces near-term headwinds but will likely see a gradual rebound as global demand strengthens and the World Cup boosts summer arrivals.”
“Total revenues are expected to rise at a faster pace than last year, while expenses should follow a similar trajectory—though at a slower rate of growth than in 2025,” said Hite. “Even so, expense growth will continue to outpace inflation.”