U.S. travel spending is expected to reach record levels in 2026 and continue rising through 2027, driven largely by resilient domestic demand, according to the latest U.S. Travel Forecast released this week by the U.S. Travel Association.
Total travel spending is projected to hit $1.37 trillion in 2026 and grow to $1.42 trillion in 2027, underscoring consumers’ continued willingness to prioritize travel despite inflation, economic uncertainty and global instability. The outlook, powered by Tourism Economics, calls for steady, domestic-led growth, with inflation-adjusted travel spending increasing 3.4 percent in 2027.
“Travel continues to be one of the most resilient and essential sectors of the U.S. economy,” Joshua Friedlander, vice president of research at the U.S. Travel Association, said in a statement. “Even with inflation and broader economic pressures, Americans are continuing to invest in experiences, reunions and business connections that happen through travel.”
Domestic travel remains the industry’s cornerstone, accounting for 87 percent of all U.S. travel spending. Domestic leisure travel is the strongest-performing segment and the only major category to exceed pre-pandemic spending levels in real terms. Spending on domestic leisure travel is forecast to total $909 billion in 2026, reflecting sustained demand for vacations, weekend getaways and visits with friends and family.
International inbound travel, while still lagging, is expected to return to growth in 2026 after declining in 2025. Visitor spending from overseas travelers is projected to increase 1.6% to $178 billion, with international visitation rising 3.4 percent to 70.6 million trips. However, the forecast notes that a full recovery to 2019 visitation levels is not expected until 2029.
The slow pace of inbound recovery continues to have broader economic implications. The U.S. travel trade deficit widened to $72 billion in 2025, as outbound travel by Americans continues to outpace spending by international visitors to the U.S.
The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across multiple U.S. cities, is highlighted as a significant opportunity to help accelerate inbound travel recovery and bolster international visibility for U.S. destinations.
Business travel is expected to grow modestly, with spending projected to rise 0.8 percent to $319 billion in 2026. The forecast suggests companies are maintaining disciplined travel budgets while continuing to prioritize in-person meetings, conferences and events.
Looking ahead, the forecast flags several downside risks that could affect travel demand, including persistent inflation and energy costs, geopolitical tensions, weakening consumer confidence and continued barriers for international visitors, such as lengthy visa wait times and global perceptions of the United States.
Despite those headwinds, the overall outlook points to stable growth as the industry navigates a gradual, uneven international recovery.